ON 21 February 2025, the African Energy Chamber launched its inaugural investment breakfast in Geneva, drawing a powerhouse gathering of European investors, financiers, and commodity traders. The high-profile event underscored Geneva’s status as a global energy hub, where major deals are struck, and industry-shaping conversations unfold.

With Africa’s energy sector at a pivotal crossroads—balancing soaring demand, strategic investments, and the global shift towards renewables—the discussions were charged with urgency and opportunity. 

Senior Vice President Verner Ayukegba set the tone in a viral voice clip, emphasizing Africa’s potential as a dominant force in the global energy market. Against this backdrop, industry leaders explored innovative financing, infrastructure expansion, and the continent’s role in shaping the future of energy.

According to Verner Ayukegba, Senior Vice President at the African Energy Chamber, the event reinforced Geneva’s role as a global powerhouse for energy and commodities, providing a crucial platform for discussing Africa’s energy future.

The discussions zeroed in on Africa’s rapidly expanding energy markets, the rising demand for oil and gas, and the strategic shifts shaping the sector. Ayukegba highlighted how Africa’s booming population, urban expansion, and accelerating economic growth—driven by countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Tanzania—are transforming the continent into a key battleground for global energy players.

With a young, increasingly urban population demanding more electricity, employment opportunities, and infrastructure, the energy sector must keep pace. “The need for power is not just about economic growth—it’s about improving lives, creating jobs, and building a future where energy is a driver of development rather than a barrier,” Ayukegba noted. 

The challenge now is ensuring Africa can harness its vast resources efficiently while reducing costs and boosting investment in sustainable energy solutions.

Industry experts from S&P Global Commodity Insights provided key insights into Africa’s role in the changing energy landscape. With the Dangote refinery poised to make Nigeria a net exporter of gasoline in 2025, the country is on the brink of a transformative shift. 

At the same time, major refinery closures in North America and Europe—forecasted to remove over three million barrels per day of refining capacity by 2030—are reshaping global supply chains.

“This is an incredibly interesting time for Africa. The continent is becoming a major target for exporters, with the Middle East’s national oil companies aggressively acquiring retail and refining assets to cement their presence,” noted Tanya Stepanova, Associate Director at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

The Dangote refinery’s rise is already making waves, reducing Nigeria’s dependency on European fuel imports while simultaneously supplying jet fuel to Saudi Aramco and naphtha to Asian markets and Togo’s Lomé hub. 

Other refinery developments are also underway, including a newly approved 10,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Delta State and plans to restart operations at Warri and Port Harcourt. These moves signal Nigeria’s determination to secure energy independence and unlock new economic opportunities.

Further south, South Africa faces a starkly different reality. With refinery closures mounting, the country must make urgent decisions about its fuel supply future. As Middle Eastern players consider acquiring Shell South Africa’s downstream assets, the nation must choose between embracing a trader-dominated market or securing a more self-reliant refining industry. “For South Africa, this isn’t just about economics—it’s about securing long-term energy stability,” Stepanova stressed.

Africa’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector is also drawing global interest. The U.S. is ramping up LNG exports to Europe, creating a competitive landscape for emerging African suppliers. 

Mozambique, in particular, is in the spotlight, with ExxonMobil expected to reach a Final Investment Decision on its Rovuma LNG project by 2026. TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project, meanwhile, is attracting investment in the billions, positioning the country as a key player in the global LNG market.

“The demand for LNG is undeniable, but long-term commitments from off-takers will be critical,” said Senior Vice President at the African Energy Chamber. “ExxonMobil has reaffirmed Mozambique’s importance within its global portfolio, and a Final Investment Decision in 2026 will be a game-changer.”

Financing remains a critical factor in Africa’s energy future. With international banks retreating from fossil fuel investments, the landscape is shifting. Major players with strong balance sheets continue to dominate upstream exploration, yet traders are increasingly stepping in as financiers. 

“For infill drilling, traders are now playing a significant role, financing projects off the back of existing reserves,” Ayukegba noted. “We expect this trend to grow over the next two to four years.”

As Africa positions itself as a global energy champion, the upcoming African Energy Week (AEW) in Cape Town from 29 September to 3 October is set to be a defining moment. 

Building on past successes, AEW remains the premier platform for high-stakes deal-making, investment discussions, and transformative partnerships in the energy sector. The momentum is building, and Africa’s energy landscape is evolving faster than ever.

Africa’s energy ambitions are no longer a distant vision—they are an unfolding reality, driven by rapid urbanization, economic expansion, and urgent power demand. The continent stands at a critical juncture, balancing the need for industrial growth with the challenge of energy security.

Yet, Africa’s constrained power sector continues to stifle progress. Without sufficient energy, vital industries such as fertilizer, steel, and cement production remain underdeveloped, deepening the economic divide between Africa and the rest of the world. While global GDP per capita surged by 15 percent between 2014 and 2024, sub-Saharan Africa’s dropped by over 10 percent, a stark reminder that energy shortages are more than just an inconvenience—they are a fundamental barrier to prosperity.

Fadhel Kaboub, an associate professor of economics at Denison University, warns against relying on fossil fuels as a long-term solution, arguing that Africa must pivot towards its vast renewable energy potential. 

With abundant solar, wind, and geothermal resources, the continent can generate 1,000 times more energy than it is projected to need by 2040. And with costs for renewables now lower than fossil fuel alternatives, financial constraints should not be the issue. Instead, Kaboub argues, debt is the real stumbling block.

For many African oil-producing nations, the need to service debt has locked them into a cycle of fossil fuel exports, prioritizing short-term financial stability over long-term energy independence. The much-anticipated Africa Energy Bank—backed by Afreximbank and the African Petroleum Producers’ Organization—aims to change that, channeling investment into Africa’s energy sector. Its supporters see it as a game-changer for a continent where millions still live without electricity. But critics warn that doubling down on oil and gas could leave African economies exposed, saddled with stranded assets in a world that is rapidly shifting towards cleaner energy.

The reality is clear: Africa must strike a balance between industrial expansion and sustainability. The continent cannot afford to remain an exporter of raw resources while importing finished goods at a premium. A regional approach—one that builds interconnected energy infrastructure across borders—could provide the economies of scale needed to power African industries without deepening debt dependency.

The stakes have never been higher. With the momentum of Geneva’s power breakfast and the commitments of the Paris Agreement, the global shift away from fossil fuels is accelerating. For Africa, this is more than an energy transition—it’s a defining moment. Get it right, and the continent won’t just meet its growing power needs; it will redefine its place in the global energy arena, unlocking unprecedented prosperity. This isn’t just about resources—it’s about the future Africa dares to build.