EAST African Community (EAC) leaders, at a high-profile event marking the November 2024 organization’s 25th anniversary in Arusha, Tanzania, have rekindled the dream of forming a political federation—an ambitious goal that dates back to the vision of East Africa’s founding statesmen.

Against the backdrop of slow progress in regional integration, the leaders agreed on the urgent need to fully operationalize the Customs Union and Common Market protocols to bolster trade within the bloc, which remains strikingly low.

The vision of a united East Africa was first championed in 1963 by Presidents Jomo Kenyatta of Kenya, Julius Nyerere of Tanganyika (now Tanzania), and Milton Obote of Uganda. Despite their efforts, the dream faltered due to administrative inertia and political hurdles.

Tanzania forged ahead, uniting with Zanzibar to form the United Republic of Tanzania, a bold step that set an example for integration but left the broader East African vision unrealized.

Addressing the gathering, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni reflected on East Africa’s interconnected trade history, noting that long before colonial borders fractured the region, it had thrived as a cohesive economic zone stretching from the Great Lakes to Mesopotamia. He described how the 1884 colonial partition of Africa disrupted this network, transforming what was once a "Connected Trade Area" into a "Disconnected Trade Area."

Museveni lamented the missed opportunities for unity, arguing that a political federation would have averted many of the region’s historical tragedies. He pointed to Uganda’s dark period under Idi Amin, the unrest in Burundi and Rwanda, and the prolonged instability in Somalia and South Sudan as crises that could have been mitigated by a stronger, united East Africa. Museveni reaffirmed Uganda’s commitment to free trade and criticized the protectionist practices that undermine market integration within the bloc.

Kenyan President William Ruto added his voice to the call for expedited integration, referencing a 2010 survey showing strong public support for a political federation across the region. He highlighted the strides made by Kenya, Uganda, and Burundi in national consultations on drafting a confederal constitution, with Rwanda, South Sudan, and Tanzania also beginning their processes. 

Ruto touted the EAC as Africa’s most dynamic regional economic community, with intra-regional trade reaching 28%—the highest on the continent. However, he stressed the need for peace and stability, which are crucial for attracting investment and fostering growth.

Ruto also underlined Kenya’s role in regional diplomacy, including efforts to stabilize South Sudan and Somalia. The Kenyan leader endorsed the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) call to merge the Luanda and Nairobi peace initiatives, signaling his country's openness to mediation led by retired President Uhuru Kenyatta.

Meanwhile, Tanzania’s President Samia Suluhu Hassan focused on environmental sustainability, revealing that her government dedicates 4-5% of GDP to combating climate change and has launched a massive afforestation drive. Tanzania’s transition to clean energy, she noted, is not only an environmental imperative but also a cornerstone of rural development, with electrification enabling youth-driven economic activities and curbing urban migration.

Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud celebrated his country’s recent accession to the EAC, calling it a long-held dream. He highlighted

Somalia’s untapped economic potential, including its strategic coastline and burgeoning investments in agriculture, energy, and fisheries.

Nevertheless, the push for greater integration comes amid skepticism from political scientists and observers who question the feasibility of a political federation. Scholars from Uganda, Kenya, and South Sudan have pointed out that the EAC's ambitious goals risk outpacing its capacity to manage internal divisions and external pressures. 

Professor Margaret Were of the Centre for Political Strategy in Nairobi notes, “While the rhetoric of unity is compelling, the EAC lacks the institutional robustness to handle the conflicts and mistrust that simmer beneath the surface.” Dr. James Onen, a South Sudanese political analyst, warns that expansion without cohesion could deepen fault lines, particularly as newer members like the DRC grapple with their internal instability.

Kenya’s assertive diplomatic outreach has also drawn mixed reactions. President Ruto’s invitation to Comoros, a nation with a troubled history of over 20 coups since independence in 1975, has raised eyebrows. 

While Comoros could enrich the bloc’s agenda on climate and trade, its volatile politics pose a risk to the EAC’s credibility. Similarly, Ethiopia, another nation courted by Kenya, brings immense economic potential with its large population and market reforms. 

Yet Ethiopia’s post-conflict fragility, particularly after the devastating Tigray war, underscores the challenges of incorporating such nations into a bloc already burdened by unresolved tensions among current members.

Dr. Pierre Kambale, a Congolese academic, emphasizes that the EAC must prioritize resolving existing disputes over expanding its membership. "Adding more players to an already shaky table doesn’t ensure stability. It increases the likelihood of further disarray," he cautions.

Despite the optimism expressed by EAC leaders, deep-seated skepticism persists about the feasibility of a political federation. Critics argue that the bloc’s lofty aspirations remain disconnected from the political and institutional realities on the ground.

A recent study from the Centre for International and Strategic Studies (CISS) warns that expanding the bloc’s membership while pushing for a political federation could create more burdens than benefits. The CISS highlights that while the notion of unity is appealing, the EAC risks overstretching its resources and capabilities, particularly as unresolved tensions among existing members continue to hinder cooperation.

Dr. Alice Mwende, a political scientist affiliated with the CISS, asserts that “the EAC is already struggling with foundational issues such as implementing trade protocols, harmonizing policies, and managing internal disputes. Adding the complex and sensitive task of forming a political federation will only exacerbate these challenges.” She emphasizes that member states have historically prioritized national sovereignty over regional goals, creating an inherent conflict in the federation's framework.

From South Sudan to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, political instability poses a significant threat to the federation’s viability. South Sudan, still grappling with post-conflict recovery, has been unable to fully integrate into the EAC’s economic structures. Similarly, the DRC, with its vast size and ongoing security concerns, introduces another layer of complexity.

Dr. Pierre Kambale, a Congolese academic, questions whether the bloc is prepared to absorb the DRC’s unique challenges without destabilizing itself further. He adds, “The EAC’s enthusiasm for expansion risks ignoring the delicate political fabric required to support a federation. Without addressing existing tensions, this ambition could lead to fragmentation rather than unity.”

The CISS study also points to the mistrust that often defines inter-state relations within the EAC. Historical grievances and economic disparities among member states have led to protectionist policies and trade disputes, undermining the spirit of cooperation. For instance, Uganda and Kenya have frequently clashed over trade restrictions, with each country accusing the other of unfair practices. “This lack of mutual trust erodes the foundation on which any federation must be built,” says Dr. James Onen, a South Sudanese political analyst.

The study asserts that while the idea of a political federation holds great symbolic value, it remains a distant dream without a seismic shift in political will, trust-building, and institutional reform. For now, the vision of a united East Africa is more aspiration than reality, eclipsed by the harsh complexities of governance and geopolitics in the region.

In Arusha, the anniversary event closed with a sense of cautious optimism. Leaders reiterated their commitment to the shared ideals of the founding fathers while acknowledging the immense work ahead. Whether the EAC can overcome its internal divisions, address its structural weaknesses, and achieve the elusive dream of political federation remains to be seen. Yet the renewed momentum signals that the vision of a united East Africa, however distant, continues to inspire.