Concerns are mounting over Nigeria’s 2025 budgets at both federal and state levels, with analysts expressing concerns that the proposed figures may be insufficient to meet the nation’s pressing humanitarian and infrastructural needs.

LAGOS

President Bola Tinubu had proposed a substantial budget of N49.7 trillion for this year, termed the “Budget of Restoration: Securing Peace, Rebuilding Prosperity.”

This proposal marked a significant increase from the N28.77 trillion budget of 2024. However, critics argue that despite the increased allocation, the budget may not effectively address the challenges faced by ordinary Nigerians.

Concerns have been raised about the allocation of funds, with substantial portions directed towards recurrent expenditure and debt servicing, potentially leaving limited resources for direct welfare improvements.

The Federal Government is faced with a daunting fiscal challenge as debt servicing takes a huge chunk of its proposed N49.7 trillion 2025 budget.

With N15.8 trillion or 45 percent of its projected N34.82 trillion revenue earmarked for debt repayment, there is growing concern about the country’s fiscal sustainability and economic resilience.

For context, this debt servicing estimate surpasses the combined N14.97 trillion earmarked for critical sectors such as security, infrastructure, education, and health.

To further ease the country’s debt burden, civil society organisations have asked the National Assembly to reduce the proposed N344.85bn allocation in the 2025 budget for lawmakers and cut down non-essential spending of the executive including, N9.4bn on travels, refreshment/meals, and foodstuff/catering materials for the presidency.

“The proposed huge spending is neither necessary nor in the public interest, especially in the face of the country’s dire economic situation and the level of proposed borrowing to fund the 2025 budget,” the Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) said in a letter dated December 21, and addressed to the lawmakers.

An analysis of the budgets from 13 Nigerian states including Lagos, Oyo, Osun, Bayelsa, Bauchi, Anambra, Gombe, Ekiti, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Delta, Plateau, and Katsina reveals a combined proposed expenditure of N9.07 trillion for 2025. Of this, approximately N3.87 trillion is allocated for recurrent expenditure, covering administrative costs such as salaries and overheads.

This allocation suggests a significant portion of state budgets is dedicated to maintaining government operations, potentially at the expense of capital projects aimed at infrastructure development.

This pattern raises questions about the states’ commitment to infrastructural development and people-centred projects, especially considering that millions of Nigerians have fallen below the poverty line in recent times. The World Bank recently projected that over 129 million Nigerians now live below the poverty line.

The Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) has criticised the Federal Government’s allocation of 7% (N3.52 trillion) of the 2025 budget to education. ASUU argued that this falls short of the 15-20% benchmark recommended by UNESCO and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) for developing countries.

The union warned that such underfunding could perpetuate existing challenges in the education sector, including inadequate infrastructure and poor welfare conditions for educators, potentially deterring qualified individuals from pursuing teaching careers.

Analysts caution that without a strategic shift in spending patterns and policy reforms, the 2025 budget may struggle to deliver meaningful improvements in living standards for the Nigerian populace.

Olu Fasan, a popular columnist, contended that previous budgets with similar optimistic titles have failed to alleviate the hardships faced by ordinary Nigerians, citing persistent issues such as widespread hunger and insecurity.

“Well, now, Tinubu has proposed a budget of N47.9 trillion for 2025. He calls it “Budget of Restoration: Securing Peace, Rebuilding Prosperity.” But would this staggering sum make an iota of difference to the lives of ordinary Nigerians? The answer, sadly, is no. For truth be told, it’s yet another false hope!,” Fasan said in an article published on BusinessDay last week.

While the proposed 2025 budgets at both federal and state levels reflect an increase in allocations, concerns persist regarding their adequacy in addressing Nigeria’s developmental needs.

The emphasis on recurrent expenditures, coupled with concerns over insufficient funding for critical sectors like education, health and the burden of debt servicing, underscores the need for a comprehensive review of budgetary priorities to ensure impactful and sustainable growth.

President Bola Tinubu allocated 31 percent of the 2025 budget to security, defense, education, health and infrastructure, reflecting his priorities for the coming year.

At a joint session of the Senate and House of Representatives on Wednesday, Tinubu noted that his N47.9 trillion budget for 2025 is targeted at protecting Nigerians and the nation’s territory, while improving infrastructure, health and education outcomes.

According to the budget details seen by BusinessDay, defence and security took N4.91 trillion, while infrastructure was allotted N4.06 trillion. Health and education, which are pillars of the human capital, took N2.48 trillion and N3.52 trillion respectively.

“Security is the foundation of all progress. We have significantly increased funding for the military, paramilitary, and police forces to secure the nation, protect our borders, and consolidate government control over every inch of our national territory,” Tinubu said.

“The government will continue to provide our security forces with the modern tools and technology they need to keep us safe. Boosting the morale of our men and women in the armed forces will remain our government’s top priority.”

On infrastructure development, Tinubu noted that his government plans to accelerate investments in energy, transport, and public works.

“By leveraging private capital, we hope to complete key projects that drive growth and create jobs. We have already embarked on key legacy projects: Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and Sokoto-Badagry Highway, which will have a huge impact on the lives of our people and accelerate economic output,” he said.

On human capital development, Tinubu said his administration is making ‘record investments’ in education, healthcare, and social services.

“In the 2025 Budget, we have made provision for 826.90 billion naira for infrastructure development in the educational sector. This provision also includes those for the Universal Basic Education (UBEC) and the nine new higher educational institutions,” he said.

He said his government is convinced that the Universal Health Coverage initiatives will strengthen primary healthcare systems across Nigeria, noting that it has allocated N402 billion to infrastructure investments in the health sector in the 2025 budget and another N282.65 billion for the Basic Health Care Fund. “Our hospitals will be revitalised with medication and better resources, ensuring quality care for all Nigerians. This is consistent with the Federal Government’s planned procurement of essential drugs for distribution to public healthcare facilities nationwide, improving healthcare access and reducing medical import dependency.”

Tinubu’s administration allocated N826.5 billion to agriculture to boost food security and generate agro-based employment in the coming year.

The allocation represents a 127.8 percent increase from N362.94 billion allotted to the sector in 2024. Capital allocations also rose by 130 percent compared to last year.

“Food security is non-negotiable. In this regard, we are taking bold steps to ensure that every Nigerian can feed conveniently, and none of our citizens will have to go to bed hungry,” Tinubu assured in his budget speech.

With a population surpassing 220 million and an annual growth rate of 2.4 percent to 2.6 percent, Nigeria is under increasing pressure to enhance its food production to feed its people.

“To ensure food sufficiency and reduce reliance on imports, N826.5 billion has been allocated to agricultural mechanisation, irrigation projects, and value-chain development,” Tanimu Yakubu, director-general, Budget Office of the Federation, noted.

“This will not only boost food production but also support economic diversification and rural development.”